Price’s Belmont Day Preview
In a Triple Crown season of firsts…first walk over for the Kentucky Derby, first time to Pimlico, and certainly its Winner’s Circle, first Belmont at Saratoga…is it too much to hope the season can deliver anymore memories?!
As I wrote before the Preakness, if you are here for an unbiased opinion on the races on Saturday, I am delighted to share that you will be disappointed. We have three horses: Raging Sea, Be You, and Seize the Grey, all born, raised and sold by Mill Ridge, competing in historic Grade 1’s on Belmont Stakes Saturday. This is what it, our life’s work, is all about. The 40 people who make up Mill Ridge, work every minute of every day to nurture the dreams of the horses and their breeders for an opportunity like tomorrow. What a blessing.
2:36pm EST
Grade 1 Ogden Phipps #6 RAGING SEA
This race could be one of the most fun of the day. Idiomatic is the favorite and is an amazing racehorse…13 starts, 10 wins, once second, and twice third, NEVER off the board. She is a really big horse with a huge stride, the modern day Zenyatta. She and her jockey Florent Geroux have an incredible partnership. His soft hands help her to settle on or near the lead in a comfortable gallop. As the race progresses he helps extend her stride and when horses get close she just digs in and won’t let them by. They are undefeated together…talk about a formidable task for Raging Sea!
While the buzz on the backside Idiomatic is in fantastic shape, I think this will be a very formidable task as she will have a lot of pressure on the front end of the race. The fastest filly in the race is Tizzy in the Sky, bred by our friends, the Malloy family, of Kestrel stud. Tizzy in the Sky is a seriously quick filly and knows one move…go to the lead. If she jumps well from the gate she will be running into the first turn and could unsettle Idiomatic’s preferred position. Inside Tizzy in the Sky will be Randomized, who also comes running out of the gate, which will only increase the likelihood that Idiomatic will be at least 3 wide around the first turn. With these three going forward, I am hopeful that Raging Sea is able to take back and draft behind a hot pace. As they progress to the top of the stretch and the lead horses start to tire, hopefully, a path opens and Raging Sea sprints past them all to the winner’s circle. I love that Raging Sea has won over the track and is coming into the race off of a very strong work pattern, most recently exercising in :47 for a half mile on the Saratoga track. This is a fast work for Chad Brown and signals to me that she is fit, happy, and ready to deliver a top performance! Will it be good enough? We will know by 2:40 EST.
3:22 EST
Grade 1 Woody Stephens #12 BE YOU
Hard to imagine that after the Ogden Phipps, we are back in the paddock for the Grade 1 Woody Stephens, a seven furlong sprint for three year old colts. We raised and sold Be You, who is in with a big shot…and a bit of a price. Be You was heavily touted last year as one of the best two year olds in Todd Pletcher’s barn. So touted that he was just beaten by a nose to Just Steel in his debut last summer at Saratoga. Just Steel would go on to win multiple stakes and run in the Preakness.
With such a start the Repole team pursued their Derby dreams and ran Be You in two Grade 1’s, both around two turns. He was competitive, but it wasn’t his thing. Fast forward to this winter in Florida, they run him around one turn and he wins for fun. This race was brilliant and inspired another try around two turns and target the Derby, running in the Bluegrass stakes at Keeneland. It proved disappointing and we are back baby, around 1 turn with a perfect post…outside and stalking. It may not seem like a big change, one turn versus two turns, but it’s a big difference and some horses just don’t like it. The big horse in the race is Prince of Monaco, who is a serious racehorse and likely the winner…but I wouldn’t trade our spot. I think Be You is back to his preferred distance and will have a perfect stalking trip setup. Let’s get lucky!
6:41 EST
Grade 1 Belmont Stakes: SEIZE THE GREY #1
When I am handicapping I am trying to picture, dream, about how a race will set up. This is why I am a terrible horseplayer because I cloud my judgment with my dream. Will Seize the Grey win? I sure hope so. Is he the likely winner? I can’t picture it another way. The big question is whether he is tired from the five week triple crown campaign, because remember he won on Derby day, the Grade 2 Pat Day mile. All indications from his trainer and those around him, is that he has been thriving. Dad drove to Churchill for his last serious work and thought he looked fabulous and thriving.
It’s going to be a different race than the Preakness. It’s a little longer and there are some serious new challengers, most notably Sierra Leone. There will be a lot of chatter about the new bit (what is in the horse’s mouth to give the jockey some control) and new jockey Flavian Prat. I think Sierra Leone is a serious candidate to win. He is an incredible horse, tough, fast, and super competitive. The race should have plenty of pace for him to run into, and given the new pilot and equipment, the rational side of my brain says he is the likely winner. However, Seize the Grey is coming into the race in a similar way…happy, healthy, and thriving. He will be more forwardly placed, whether he is on the lead or close to it. He will have the first mover advantage in the stretch, and because he is super tough and competitive, I believe he wins.
Just writing this preview gives me goosebumps. It has been a dream since Monday when the entries came out…the slow crescendo is building. I can’t imagine how I will feel tomorrow, let alone if I can sleep tonight.
Price