Derby 150 Preview
19,025 thoroughbreds were born in North America in 2021. Twenty line up at 6:57 (EDT) in Louisville Kentucky for the 150th celebration of the Kentucky Derby.
This year we have the incredible fortune of having raised ENDLESSLY for Mr. And Mrs. Amerman. This son of OSCAR PERFORMANCE has allowed us to share in the Derby week buzz in a way we haven’t for sometime. I’ve made a daily trip to Churchill Downs, earliest departure 3:45am, and I would do it all over again. It has been a dream to be around ENDLESSLY this week. He is a beautiful horse. Strong, agile, and very light on his feet, he is an athlete and an inspiration for the dream we dream for every horse at Mill Ridge.
If you have come to this note in the past for handicapping advice I will say this year will be especially bias. I hope to provide some idea of how I think the race will setup, but ultimately, my heart will be pulling for number 14, ENDLESSLY.
The favorite is a brilliant horse…Fierceness. He is really fast. He reminds me the most of a cheetah, really light on his feet and effortless in his action. In a game defined by the first to the finish line this horse is very live. He is really quick, and impressively can carry his speed. His Florida Derby (replay) was absolutely brilliant. If you would like to see a breathtaking win, take the 2 minutes to watch it.
Fierceness’ apparent weakness is if he doesn’t secure an easy lead he frustrates and doesn’t run his race. Unopposed he’s an absolute freak, being forced out of his race, we haven’t seen the same Fierceness. I think the Derby will be a race that is not to his liking because there is a lot of speed in the race as he, Dornoch, Track Phantom, and Epic Ride all want to control the pace. Epic Ride is the one who just drew into the race and jumping from the 20 spot he will be running to try and establish a position into the first turn. This running will happen to Fierceness outside, pushing him along and I think out of his comfort zone.
With a fast pace I look to horses who sit in the second and third flight to have big chances. ENDLESSLY, hopefully, is second or third flight and outside along with: JUST A TOUCH, STRONG HOLD, RESILIENCE…I think this group is all very live as I think they will be forward enough that they can pounce on a tiring pace up front.
SIERRA LEONE is the likely second choice or favorite and will be a very interesting horse. He is super talented, winning the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland as much the best. He is a beautiful, strong, imposing, and breathtaking individual. He is built like a middle linebacker in football, and gives me that feeling…a horse who is an incredible athlete in not only his speed but his size and general athleticism. He is going to leave from the #2 post and is not known to be an early pace setter. He is a closer and will do his best running at the end of the race. My concern for him is whether or not he can navigate a trip and find an open running lane at the end of the race. His jockey Tyler Gaffalione is one of the best at Churchill Downs and trainer Chad Brown has him in incredible condition, if any team can get him ready for the day and peak performance it is them. If the racing Gods shine and he has a clear running path as he accelerates to the finish line, he will most likely be wearing the Roses into the winner’s circle.
Two other horses that I think are interesting and in with chances…DORNOCH and SOCIETY MAN. Owned by our great friends at West Paces Racing, an Atlanta based partnership, they are living the dream with two horses in the Derby this year. I think it’s amazing that each horse has a great chance depending on how the race sets up. DORNOCH has drawn the 1 hole and is a speed horse going for the lead. If he jumps from the gate clean he should be leading the field into the first turn. If the speed holds he is very live to win the race. SOCIETY MAN jumps from the far outside and is a closer. If the pace is very fast and SOCIETY MAN navigates a trip, he will be running at the end with a big chance. SOCIETY MAN is being ridden by Frankie Dettori, one of the greatest riders of my lifetime. Frankie is Italian and has spent most of his career based in Europe. He has never won the Kentucky Derby and wants it to complete his resume. He is riding really well, having won six races on the same day at Santa Anita a few weeks ago, and is the perfect pilot for SOCIETY MAN.
The table is set for Kentucky Derby 150 to be an incredible race…for me there is an opportunity to see a brilliant performance in FIERCENESS, an inspired performance with SIERRA LEONE, yet we are ENDLESSLY dreaming of the winning performance!!
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