Bloodstock Agents: Finding Value with Timing
Headley Bell, Managing Partner of Mill Ridge Farm, and his son, Price Bell, General Manager, sat down in their office to talk about what makes Mill Ridge Farm and their bloodstock arm, Nicoma Bloodstock, one of the best in the business.
A Bloodstock Agent as a True Student of Pedigree
Since founding Nicoma Bloodstock in 1979, Headley Bell has experienced great success in the Thoroughbred horse industry as a bloodstock agent. When he first entered the business, he developed his own method of mating stallions, combining generations of family expertise with newly emerging data tools. Headley will be the first to tell you there’s no secret sauce for what he does, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any secret family recipes.
“The idea that you can replicate a pedigree perfectly is somewhat foolish. Just look at your sibling and how much you resemble,” Headley explained. “We can, however, add as many high-quality ingredients in the stew as possible to make it tasty.”
Headley was one of the first bloodstock agents to employ statistical software—specifically including CompuSire—over 30 years ago to track pedigrees as a tool to inform his decisions. This data, along with fine-tuning generations of experience, led Nicoma Bloodstock to its present-day success.
Playing the Long Game
Nicoma Bloodstock has learned to be resolute in their decision-making process since they, and their trusted clients, must live with these decisions for as many as two to four years after a mating is decided. The amount of time it takes to determine the success of a breeding decision can’t be understated and varies depending on the intended future of the horse:
Foals - The horse’s value is determined after two years since the mare is pregnant for a year, and the foal is sold the year after.
Yearling - When the intention is to sell the horse as a yearling, the value is determined three years after the breeding decision.
Racehorses - Depending on the precociousness of the racehorse, it could take three to four years to see value.
Although breeding decisions are uncertain, Nicoma Bloodstock and its clients approach the entire process with a time-tested balance of enthusiasm and professionalism. Nicoma Bloodstock’s history of breeding high-quality runners is a testament to the art and science of breeding elite racehorses and motivation for the heart and passion they put into everything they do.
The Value of Timing with Stud Fee Fluctuation
The stud fee for a stallion fluctuates throughout the horse’s life, with a spike in the first year due to the unpredictability of the stallion’s career. It fluctuates in later years depending on its success on the track. Headley and Price are masters of identifying which stallions might yield extraordinary results before their stud fees skyrocket.
Some stallions chosen by Nicoma and Mill Ridge, like DYNAFORMER, SMART STRIKE, and QUALITY ROAD were not initially considered commercial stallions, so their stud fees lowered with time. But when they started producing runners that exceeded expectations, their stud fees rose to reflect their worth.
“Each year, every horse will tell you a little bit more about themselves,” says Headley. “We are constantly identifying and considering prospects and looking for value plays without compromising product. Every link in the chain is important to a bloodstock agent and our client’s success.”
A lower stud fee doesn’t mean compromised quality. Some of the most impactful stallions in recent history once stood for $10,000 or less, including:
One of the most significant indicators of valuable stallions is their ability to “move their mares up,” as Headley calls it.
As in the world of professional sports, stallions’ athletic ability ranges from that of a high school football player to an NFL star. Stallions that can “move their mares up” are of NFL-star caliber, and when crossed with a high school star-level broodmare, they have the potential to produce outstanding progeny. If a mare’s progeny goes on to play at a higher level, she will be “drafted” to a higher level and be considered for stallions with higher stud fees.
Nicoma Bloodstock has made a name for itself by identifying stallions of great influence, and through these pairings, they can improve the reputations of their clients’ mares as well.
Aloha West
ARROGATE and Decisions Against the Grain
Several years ago, Nicoma Bloodstock suggested matings for their clients, 12 mares to ARROGATE in his third year at stud. This stallion demonstrated his racing brilliance late-career and didn’t break his maiden until the spring of his three-year-old year.
Initially, breeding to ARROGATE was a questionable decision to some observers.
ARROGATE was unique in that he waned in the later part of his racing career, and the bloom had already come off by the time he retired to stud. In his first year at stud, ARROGATE stood for $75,000. Whether he might have bred a racehorse or a commercial horse was a calculated gamble.
By ARROGATE’s third year at stud, his stud fee dropped to $50,000. Price explained, “We hoped that his progeny on the track would show the same brilliance he did. We felt there was good value in the reduced stud fee, and that ARROGATE himself was so well-bred that he’d be a good broodmare sire.
We bred to ARROGATE when he only had yearlings, which weren’t so well-received. However, we still believed in the horse because we accepted that, while he wasn’t a precocious horse, he still was what he was—one of the most brilliant horses we had ever seen. On top of that, at the time he had a discounted fee of $50,000 that had come down from $75,000, which influenced our decision.”
Mill Ridge Sales Hip 805 f. Arrogate - Scarlet Love sold for $590,000 at the 2022 Keeneland September Sale
The Consideration Process for a Bloodstock Agent
In the Thoroughbred industry, stallion bloodlines are the one common denominator in the breeding equation that statisticians can track. However, Nicoma Bloodstock believes focusing on the sire will reveal 70 percent of the formula, and to have a successful mating, they not only look at the pedigree of the broodmare but what areas of her pedigree she is leaning towards.
When considering a mating, a bloodstock agent first considers the pedigree of the mare and what part of that pedigree she is leaning toward:
Conformation - What is her build, color, and physical appearance?
Performance - Is she a fast, short-distance runner or more of a long-distance runner?
The second step is an appraisal of the value mare and evaluating a justifiable stallion stud fee price point. Nicoma Bloodstock generally sticks with a fifth of the appraisal value. For example, if a mare is appraised at $200,000, they would consider a stallion with a stud fee in the $25,000 to $50,000 range.
Headley and Price then decide the strengths and weaknesses they want to consider in that mating. Does it need leg? Speed? Size?
The fourth step takes into account the commercial side of the mating. Ideally, a cross can produce a racehorse and also a commercial horse.
When clients sit down with Nicoma Bloodstock or any bloodstock agent, it’s crucial to first express their goals and budget. This will help define a plan. For Nicoma Bloodstock, as a foundation piece, they look for a love of the horse within the conversation. Breeding the successful horse can take a lot of time, and time is money.
“Nature isn’t always kind and won’t fulfill expectations,” Headley said. “Having a love of the horse and excitement for the industry is going to be what supports everything along what can be a lengthy process. It is what we look for in our clients and what, we hope, they see in us.”
Today, breeding micro-share and partnership investment opportunities allow clients to become involved on a smaller level. A bloodstock agent can introduce various partnerships depending on their intended level of participation.
Weanlings at Mill Ridge Farm
The Mill Ridge Way
Mill Ridge Farm has a history of raising and selling racehorses at the highest level. The fruits of their success just since 2000, 36 Grade 1 and 8 Breeder’s Cup winners raised or sold including:
Kentucky Derby winner – GIACOMO (‘05)
Horses of the Year – POINT GIVEN (‘01) and HAVRE DE GRACE (‘12)
Additionally, Nicoma Bloodstock has been involved with the matings of:
Arc de Triomphe winners – TREMPOLINO (‘87) and SUAVE DANCER (‘91)
Kentucky Derby winners – BARBARO (‘06) and STREET SENSE (‘07)
Horses of the Year – HAVRE DE GRACE (‘12) and BRICKS AND MORTAR (‘19)
Mill Ridge and Nicoma Bloodstock take pride in what they do and their relationships with their clients. Around 80 percent of Mill Ridge clients are commercial breeders, and Headley and Price take great care in accomplishing their individual goals.
Nicoma Bloodstock- Headley Bell the consulting arm, charges $500 per mating, or they negotiate the best prices with the stallion farm, and they receive from the farm and not the mare owner, a commission of 5 percent on the contract.
There is a high level of trust with clients because, although higher stud fees generate more immediate income, Nicoma Bloodstock and Mill Ridge have demonstrated that they can produce value for their clients in the long run.
“Our clients are our friends,” says Price. “We don't recommend the most expensive horses because we want to play the game with our clients for the long haul. We do that by managing their accounts like we would our own.”
If you’d like to begin a conversation with a bloodstock agent at Nicoma Bloodstock about potentially owning your own piece of thoroughbred racing history, contact us today at (859) 224-1000 or learn more here.